“Great leaders know how to make the right decisions. Faced with the need to make a lot of serious and not-so-big decisions every day, they know when to look for more information, when to consult with others, when to listen to their heart, and when to reframe the problem that has arisen. In times of uncertainty, decision making is sometimes difficult for even the most experienced and trained leaders,” writes the Wharton Executive Education website.
Professor at the Wharton Business School Maurice Schweitzer argues that “the world knows little about how to make decisions in times of uncertainty.” Leaders constantly make decisions without having complete information, often underestimate how many chances and uncertainties there are in the world around us. When you cannot properly understand an unclear situation, you can make serious mistakes. For example, if you’re trying to complete an assignment without really knowing the requirements – without getting help from professional platforms like paper writing service MasterPapers will inevitably result in a bad grade.
We are overly confident not only that good things will happen, but also that we have an idea of the best and worst-case scenarios. “Each decision is a prediction of the future,” the professor notes. “But we are too often surprised because when we predict the best and worst-case scenarios, we constantly underestimate how bad and good things can happen. The coronavirus pandemic has helped us understand how rich the world is in random events. Everything from supply chains to travel and government intervention is hard to predict. ”
Another potential mistake is the inability to account for the high degree of uncertainty inherent in complex situations. “When multiple players, components, steps are involved, the uncertainty increases,” says Maurice Schweitzer. For example, a construction project that has many subcontractors and needs to be completed on time. The deadlines for such projects, which involve many steps, are often delayed and difficult to foresee.
Failure to recognize uncertainty also makes decision-making difficult. “Sometimes we have to figure out when to move forward and stop gathering information. We want to make the best decision based on the information received, but there is an alternative to wait. This is the opposite of the tendency for decisions to be made in a hurry. You need to determine what basic information you have, what you can get, and what you cannot. Don’t wait longer than usual before making a decision,” advises the business school professor.
Uncertainty can also lead us to reward the wrong things. “Leaders can reward good results rather than good decisions and punish bad results rather than bad decisions. Many managers cannot tell good decisions from bad ones because they are very focused on the result,” explains Maurice Schweitzer. It’s important to step away from the day-to-day craziness and continually reassess what you’re doing. For example, Masterpapers gives that opportunity to students, allowing them to consider reflect whether they’re going in the right direction at all.
Risk avoidance is another problem that arises when you are dealing with uncertainty. This can be even more problematic for organizations that reward good results rather than good solutions. For example, your team creates an innovative product that can help you outperform other companies in the competition. But there is a risk, and your team may commit resources to a project with less impact, but greater chances of success. “The human brain is best suited to certain situations,” says Schweitzer. – We prefer to think in causal terms, and we like predictable results. We want to open Door # 1 when we know what’s behind it. When we don’t know, we underestimate the potential results.”
The risk to the team and the organization is very different. “If you’re a company leader, you want your team to take risks, and that risk gets rewarded. At the organizational level, you will be more successful when many small teams take risks. If people are punished for their mistakes, they will avoid high-risk situations and show that they are risk-averse. This may be rational for every small team, but bad for the organization as a whole. If you want your teams to take risks, you need to reward good decisions, not positive results,” explains the business school professor.
3 Ways To Improve Your Decision-making Process
A high level of uncertainty does not mean that we should rely on luck in our decision-making process. During the Business School’s 4-day Effective Decision-Making program, participants learn tools and techniques to improve decision-making.
Step one is to familiarize yourself with the potential problems described above. Understanding the role of overconfidence and risk aversion, for example, helps to avoid influencing the decision-making process.
Second, use historical experience, but avoid another common mistake when assessing what worked and what didn’t. The point here is that we often disproportionately attribute good results to our discernment and skills while attributing bad results to external circumstances.
Third, make a bad prediction. Then understand what contributed to it. This helps us become devil’s advocates and identify potential problems. Consider this example, instead of reading this article, 2021 Updated Review on Top-Rated Academic Writing Services, you simply go and use untrusted services. As a result, your data will be stolen, you’ll get a lot of spam, and your investment into a proper assignment will get you nothing.
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